In the November edition of (the British) Prospect magazine a Dutch author, Joris Luyendijk, wrote an article on the inflated sense of self-worth that pervades a small section of the political Right in Britain. He writes that many English people have a superiority complex that prevents them being realistic about their country’s place in the world, a sort of collective clinical narcissism. This rather disagreeable British attitude manifested itself most obviously in the Brexit campaign. Some Remain advocates argued that the UK should remain so that it could “run the EU”. In the Economist Edward Lucas argued that “Britain’s size, experience and friends make us the continent’s natural leader”. In the Spectator Toby Young opined that, once out of the EU Britain would become “the world’s third economy”. Being special, other nations would rush to make deals with Britain, which needs the EU far less than the EU needs it.
These grandiose fools, encouraged by the tabloids and approximately two generations out of date, were, or should have been, put in their place by a recent State of the Union speech by Jean-Paul Junker: “Today Europeans make up 8% of the world population – and will represent only 5% in 2050 . By then you will not see a single EU country among the top world economies. All the bluster and the appeals to old people who recall the Empire and the red all over the map, do not conceal the fact that the whole EU, including the UK, are becoming irrelevant (Trump, who knows nothing, recognised that when he was dismissive of the British Prime Minister on the phone).
The case for the EU rests on the simple fact that, as Luyendijk writes, that seen from China or Brazil the difference between the UK and Belgium is a rounding error- 0.87% of the world population versus 0.15%. The only hope for the UK would have been to stay in the EU and try to be constructive and positive, try and change the things that don’t work well, stop the crazy EU expansion policies and moderate, perhaps, some of the regulation-making. Tthe pity is that Labour and the Liberal Democrats have little hope of power, and this leaves the country in the hands of people who have a sense of bravado, who cannot accept criticism and whose quaint sense of “British greatness” is totally unrealistic and, by the way, offensive to others. No wonder Continentals have no wish to offer Brexit-Britain any special favours.
There is a real danger that, frustrated by the incredible difficulties involved in the negotiations, the British government simply announces it is leaving, period. No formal agreement, no remaininglin the single market, just withdrawal. This is what the little-minded right- wingers want, prefeerina winged and isolated Britain to being a respectable member of the international community. The result of this would take a long essay to describe, including the breakup on the United Kingdom. Such is the litle- minded resentment and loathing of migration, free trade, and the liberal economic system we have lived under. But the rich will still be rich and will still call the shots.
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. Brexit or otherwise, Britain’s relative decline is irreversible. We will never have the GDP growth rate of China, the population growth rate of India, or the natural resources of Brazil. Any hopes of restoring the country to supposedly glory days of British domination are misplaced to say the least.
But what we can do is create a pleasant life for our citizens. Recent migration flows show that Europe is still seen as a desirable place to life, however poorly its economic growth may be. People from all over the world, not just Africa and the war-torn parts of the Middle East, want to live here because we offer our people a fair deal. We guarantee healthcare as a right. We have a social security system that provides dignity to the elderly and the disabled. We provide our children with a good quality education, and with the exception being Britain, an affordable higher education too.
Now if Britain leaves the Single Market (and presumably the Customs Union too), it will immediately becomes less competitive due to its isolation from the world’s biggest market. It will also be cut off from the trade links the EU has with non-EU countries, including the ones the EU is in the process of dealing with. In an ideal scenario, the UK would make trade deals will countries from all round the world, offsetting the losses from being shut out of the Single Market. And of course, its very likely we will make some. But there’s absolutely no way we can make trade deals on our own that offset the losses of the Single Market. No non-EU member state has done it, because making trade deals is enormously difficult- more so the smaller the market you are.
Philip Hammond is a smart man, he knows Britain’s trading relations with the world are guaranteed to worsen in the event of a hard Brexit, even if he doesn’t admit it. So to offset this, he’s hinted that Britain may abandon the European social model I’ve just described. Britain would become a tax haven in order to remain globally competitive. Now I’ve got no doubt that lower taxes would bring in more foreign money- though how much this money will benefit those other than the people who own it remains to be seen. But its certain that tax revenues will fall, particularly in the short term. To offset a spiralling deficit, Britain would have to cut public services. We would effectively become the European Texas: lots of wealthy people, but lots of poor people, terrible infrastructure, patchy healthcare, and a threadbare welfare state. Most British people oppose this, but many would vote Tory regardless, due to an ineffective opposition and support for Brexit, in the most nominal sense. Even with Trump in power, America’s future is far brighter than Britain’s at this rate.
Excellent post, Owen. Got it all in one. Do you suppose the supporters of Brexit have any idea what they started?
Stephen Kinnock, a Labour MP and leading Remain campaigner, came to speak in Exeter- a constituency that ended up voting Remain. During the speech, he mentioned that many Leave MPs wanted to turn Britain into a tax haven. He also mentioned what you have- that they have an inflated idea of Britain’s significance in world affairs. So as far as the Leave leaders are concerned, I think they knew exactly what they were doing, even if they were wrong about how successful it would be. But in regards to Leave voters, many of whom were working-class people who resent corporate Britain, I think they had no idea. The Leave campaign, which largely consisted of Thatcherites, appropriated the language of class warfare so as to appear to be on the side of the people. It was hard for the Remain campaign to dispel that myth, because they had the backing of businesses concerned about the economic effects of Brexit.
In short, Brexit will be good for a select few multinational corporations and wealthy individuals from around the world. But British businesses and people from all classes stand to lose a great deal given the noises coming from the Tory front bench.