The British government has been caught on a petard of its own making, a total inability to think through the implications of Brexit. Only now is reality dawning: if you want to maintain the support of industry you have to keep all the 40 Free Trade Agreements arranged by the EU. Britain does not have the capacity to negotiate new free-trade agreements . It doesn’t have the experienced negotiators, for a start and hasn’t struck an independent trade arrangement for forty years. And, in any case, it takes an age to negotiate an FTA.
The obvious answer, viewed with a shudder by the Ra-Ra nationalists, is to stay in the single market and the customs union (or don’t leave at all!). But if you do that you have to accept hordes of young, educated, trained Continentals who, guess what?, take British jobs.
But unless trade is fixed and arranged the corporations, which support and fund the Tory Party, will lose confidence, all the more so if well- trained young people are expelled or not allowed into the country. But if they are allowed in then the rank and file Brexit voter will be furious. Thus has the right-wing. zenophobic crowd positioned themselves, totally voluntarily, between a rock amd a hard place.
Epicurus believed in moderation as a guiding principal in life. Those who are advocating Brexit at all are, in my opinion, misguided, but those who want to throw caution to the winds and advocate a hard Brexit (just getting out. Period) are dangerous and immoderate. Spoiled children is a more unkind epithet.
During the referendum campaign, those advocating Leave portrayed the EU as a protectionist racket, arguing that were we to leave, loads of non-EU countries would line up to trade with us, offsetting any losses from leaving the EU. This is now demonstrably false. In his state of the union speech, Jean Claude Juncker was very enthusiastic about EU deals with Canada and Australia, exposing the lie espoused by Daniel Hannan that trade with Commonwealth countries will improve dramatically after Brexit. Moreover, non-EU countries have a greater incentive to prioritise trade deals with the EU than with an independent Britain, because the EU is a much larger market. In any event, it’s extremely unlikely we can replicate the deals the EU has with other countries, let alone improve on them- largely because the Civil Service is underfunded and understaffed. And even if we could, most economists believe this wouldn’t offset the losses from leaving the Single Market.
A year on from the referendum, Britain has gone from being one of the fastest growing countries in the OECD to being one of the slowest. The Pound has depreciated rapidly, leading to rising inflation but only a very modest boost to exports. The Brexit negotiations are progressing at a painfully slow rate. It’s become apparent that contrary to the assertions of the Leave campaign, Britain does not ‘hold all the cards’. The government sought a mandate for their vision of Brexit, which was denied by the electorate in an embarrassing loss for the Conservative Party.
Shockingly, none of this has resulted in a decrease in Euroscepticism in Britain. Most polls show at best, only a very slight move towards Remain since the referendum. So any attempt to reverse the referendum result will be viewed as a denial of the will of the people. Rather than calling for a second referendum soon, as some Remainers have, Britain’s pro-EU politicians should play the long game. They should go along with the referendum result for now, while advocating a transition arrangement that keeps Britain in the Single Market and Customs Union to prevent any sudden calamities. But if there is a sea-change in public opinion, from 52-28% in favour of Brexit to say 60-40% for Remain, then the referendum result ought to be overturned. The problem with holding a second referendum is the lack of accountability. Politicians on both sides can make all sorts of promises, knowing in most cases that because they aren’t in government, they can’t be held to account if they lied or promised something undeliverable. At the same time, public opinion can change, and the government has a duty to reflect that change in its policies.
An excellent analysis. It is frustrating that the public is either preoccupied with other issues or simply doesn’t care. The economists confidently forecast a severe downturn in the economy, caused by far too much consumer debt. Preserve us! But it might have a silver lining if and when it happens – it will be blamed on the clueless policy called Brexit.