from Martin Dean, Taunton Somerset:
“We in Britain are a peculiar crowd; we like certainty, stability and equilibrium. In a few words, we like to know what will happen next. Unfortunately, that situation is far from the norm for most people outside the Westminster bubble, and I expect quite a few within it.
As we all know we are faced with Brexit and we are all unsure of where the negotiations will lead. Even at this early stage there is sabre rattling over the subject of Gibraltar and we have not even started on the thorny subject of the Irish border. There is hostility in the air, no wonder the poor British public is bewildered and confused.This is not what they voted for (or against) and they fear for what other unstated issues will emerge in the next two years.
“Add to that the state of the political parties. Labour is in meltdown and seems incapable of mounting a credible opposition. Its statements are confusing at best and meaningless at worst. I will be kind and say it is talking to itself, but in reality I feel it is talking to its Metropolitan activists. The County Council elections next month will see how far it has fallen.
“The Lib Dems are trying but they are starting from a pitifully low base line that the nice Mr. Clegg gave them. Progress is being made, but it will be light years before they can make a real impact. I see their position as being similar to that in the late 1950s /early 60s when they had a handful of MPs. Then they won Orpington (now read Richmond) but then slow progress with only Local Council election victories. That is the outlook for them.
UKIP are in free fall, although they will always attract the Daily Express (and quite a few Daily Mail) readers. Their goal has been scored… what else is there left for them to achieve?` Their only positive point is that they have kept the BNP away from the political
scene.
“The Conservatives have not done anything really bad although the Budget was a shambles. The Brexit negotiations will test their mettle.
“Hence we have a political vacuum and we don’t like it. Not many people like what they are experiencing so they run for safety. In a largely conservative nation, people will support the Conservatives, hence their ‘popularity’. It’s not that the population like them, it’s just that the alternative is unacceptable.
“This is a depressing analysis of how I see things from the deep provinces. I fully accept we are far removed from the centres of power and in many ways we are a victim of what is thrown at us. At the moment we in Taunton Deane are a test bed for the Government’s Universal Credit. Not many people down here know that – they are not impacted. However we at the Foodbank have seen demand jump by 64% since it was introduced. Wait and see what will happen when it is rolled out across the UK. The Metropolitan areas will be forced to stop navel gazing and look at issues outside their comfort zone.
Meanwhile the next test which will give a reasonable guide to the national mood will be in May. Watch for the ripples on the political pond at the County Council elections. Thankfully London and many conurbations are not involved. That way the media will be forced to report from The Sticks. They will probably go to Kent or Buckinghamshire – areas safe with existing grammar schools.
“One further point which I feel needs including. I sense that there is an overwhelming sense of apprehension within the country because we don’t know what will be debated/agreed at the Brexit talks but more importantly, we don’t feel the Government can negotiate effectively. The Budget showed their incompetence (as well as the opposition’s) as the Government’s blunder was not spotted by the politicians and their party machines but by the BBC’s political correspondent. If we fail delivering our routine domestic policies, what hope have we at the complicated issues over leaving the EU?
We must recognise that most people in the UK are not political animals. Some can cope with domestic events, very few are interested in European issues, let alone wider world wide affairs. Interest is only taken when it hits home and confronts them. I recall the headline from The Times in 1896… ‘Fog in Channel, Europe isolated’. Things really haven’t changed a great deal, so no wonder we are more than concerned”. (Martin Dean, Taunton, Somerset, England)
Dean’s first point was why I predicted most people would vote Remain. Voting Leave guarantees instability and upheaval. I think Leave won partly because it convinced people the EU was too volatile and unstable to remain a part of. It also claimed that that the EU is heading towards becoming a federal state, so remaining a part of it is not a vote for the status quo. Of course, now that Britain has left, a federal Europe is more likely- though still a pipe dream at this point. The EU is also learning to be more flexible, as demonstrated by the speeches at the 60th anniversary Treaty of Rome celebrations.
Labour’s problems are multifaceted. To an extent, its decline can be blamed on Jeremy Corbyn- a leader unenthused by the EU and disinterested in the Article 50 process. He talks a good talk about austerity, but the public aren’t just going to judge a potential PM based on their views on public services. He is also uncharismatic, and doesn’t seem able to hold to Conservatives to account on their specific errors, offering only a generalised critique of austerity every time they make a mistake.
But even if Corbyn were replaced as leader, Labour’s challenges would be almost insurmountable. The party is dead in Scotland and Southern England. The Scottish Labour Party long took its voters for granted, and didn’t stand up for their interests vigorously enough. Although at the moment, most Scottish people oppose independence, most Scottish left-wingers support it, putting a low ceiling on the appeal of a left-wing unionist party. As for Southern England, most voters are either socially conservative and Eurosceptic, or hold very free-market neoliberal views. The proportion of consistent leftists is far lower than in the rest of the country. Blair appealed to Southern England by moderating Labour’s economic views. But such a strategy would prove unpalatable to a membership enraged by austerity, and would only further alienate the Scots.
Dean is right about both the Lib Dems and UKIP. I’d add that both are disadvantaged by our single-member plurality voting system (First Past the Post.) Unlike UKIP, the Lib Dems are not in terminal decline. But if they want to restore their fortunes, they need to emphasise a coherent policy platform, not simply talk about how terrible Brexit is. Before the referendum, most people didn’t list the EU as a particular cause for concern. Only after the referendum did Europe become an important issue. So being pro-European is unlikely to galvanise much support, unless its accompanied by other policies. Its also worth bearing in mind that most seats the Lib Dems lost in 2015 voted Leave, particularly in the South West.
Dean is also right in implying that the upcoming council elections are too early for the Article 50 process to have an impact on the Conservatives’ popularity. As he points out, they are simply seen as better than the alternatives. Its not that most people want to see food bank usage increase, its that they want the deficit reduced, and see cuts to public services as an inevitable aspect of that. What he gets wrong is his cynical view of the media. They won’t be interested in Kent or Buckinghamshire because both councils are reliably Tory. Grammar schools doesn’t have anything to do with it. What they will report is Labour’s decline across the country. The party is far less popular now than it was in 2012- the high point of Ed Miliband’s tenure. Expect the SNP to increase its representation in Scotland considerably. The Conservatives will also make big gains in England, Scotland and Wales. UKIP will decline slightly, and the Lib Dems will increase slightly, though not as much as most people think.